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Showing posts with label Exchange rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Exchange rates. Show all posts

Friday, October 27, 2023

Grand plans for Malaysians working in Singapore

 

All-time high: The Singapore dollar surged to a new high against the ringgit two days ago. - Thomas Yong/The Star


JOHOR BARU: Many Malaysians working across the Causeway are planning holidays and home renovations as the Singapore dollar surged to a new high against the ringgit.

Jason Wong, 27, said he felt that his decision to cross the border daily to work was the right one as he now has more cash in hand due to the strong currency exchange rate of S$1 to RM3.50.

“One by one, many of my peers and relatives had gone to Singapore for work, which led to my decision to do the same. I started working there in March after finding it difficult to get a stable job in Johor Baru.“I start my commute at around 6am and reach home after 8pm every day. It is tiring but the exchange rate makes it worthwhile. I can give more money to my elderly parents now that I have extra disposable income,” he told The Star.

Wong added that he was also saving to take his parents on a holiday for the first time next year.

The Singapore dollar shot to a new high of 3.5086 against the ringgit on Tuesday morning.

Ardy Zainuddin, 33, who works as a purchasing executive in Singapore, was happy to have extra money to renovate his new home here.

“My wife and I have just got the keys to our new house and with a second baby on the way, anything extra is welcome,” said Ardy, who has been commuting across the border for work for the past five years.

However, he hopes that the Malaysian government would come up with policies to strengthen the ringgit.

“The strong Singapore-Malaysia currency exchange is good for those working across the border, but I am concerned that the weakening ringgit will make things more expensive for other Malaysians.

“My relatives living in Johor and Melaka have been complaining that it is costly to eat out or even cook at home. They are also hesitant to travel overseas because of the weak ringgit,” he added.

Checks by The Star at several popular money changers in the city found that they were well-stocked with the ringgit to cater to the expected higher demand.

A money changer who only wanted to be known as Wan said, “This is the first time I have seen the ringgit dip so low against the Singapore dollar in my 10 years of being in the industry.

When the exchange rate was S$1 to RM3.41 in May, our business rose by about 30% as those working across the border as well as Singaporeans rushed to buy the ringgit in large quantities,” she said.


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Sunday, June 11, 2017

On Mcoin, Bitcoin and points of investment



MCOIN is still very much a talking point, especially in Penang. To the uninitiated, it is the “digital currency” of MBI International, a company involved in a myriad of activities and hogging the limelight for the wrong reasons after being flagged as one of the entities not recognised by Bank Negara.

Since Bank Negara’s warning two weeks ago, the company’s accounts amounting to some RM177mil have been frozen. The cash in question is significantly much more than the previous major scheme that came under probe by Bank Negara and other agencies.

In 2012, the authorities froze RM99.8mil in bank accounts of Genneva Malaysia Sdn Bhd. Also, 126kg of gold were carted away from the office. It has been five years and the investors, most of them ordinary wage earners looking to earn an extra buck from their savings, have yet to receive their money.

One of the reasons is likely that the liabilities of Genneva Malaysia are 10 times more than the assets recovered.

MBI International, which is primarily based in Penang, has a network stretching up to China. According to reports, it has come under pressure from some investors wanting a return of their money.

However, outlets in M Mall in Penang are still accepting Mcoin for the purchase of goods and services. There is no rush to cash out, as one would have expected, considering that the accounts of MBI International have been frozen.

Nonetheless, it is only a matter of time before the value of Mcoin and the ability of MBI International to return money to its investors is put to the test.

Based on previous events that led to companies having their bank accounts seized by the central bank, it would be a long time before the investors are able to retrieve their cash.

There are some who are completely ignorant of the new global order of currencies and money, making comparisons between Mcoin and the rise of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

If anybody is harbouring any hope that the value of Mcoin would rise just like the phenomenal bull run seen in the world of cryptocurrency, they had better stop dreaming.

There are fundamental differences between instruments such as Mcoin, which in essence is a token to redeem goods at a few outlets, compared to cryptocurrency that is fast gaining traction as an alternative currency around the world.

Mcoin has unlimited supply and its value is controlled by one entity. How the value is derived is not clear.

In contrast, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have a limited supply. And the supply is decentralised – meaning no one entity controls the supply. There is a ledger that tracks all transactions and measures the amount of supply and how much more is available.

The objective of the people behind cryptocurrency is to come up with a currency that is not controlled by central banks. New supply can only come about after hours of a process called `mining’.

The mining process is a complicated one. It involves many hours of programming and utilising high computing skills to predict the next chain in the block of coins. The data used is based on historical transactions and it is said that one block is created every 10 minutes.

Only one successful miner is rewarded with a slice of the cryptocurrency at any one time. He or she can then transact it in an exchange.

The first cryptocurrency is Bitcoin, which began operating in January 2009.

Bitcoin is only one of the hundreds of cryptocurrencies in existence. There are many more new coins coming up, improving on the technology pioneered by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Nobody knows who is Satoshi or if he really exists. However, the legend is that he wanted a currency that is not under the control of central banks, hence the birth of Bitcoin, the first decentralised currency.

The market capitalisation of all cryptocurrency was US$27bil as of April this year – four times more than what the value was in January this year.

Much of the rise is attributed to the volatile US dollar. A few years ago, if anybody had said that cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin would be used to hedge against the US dollar, many would have laughed it off.

Today, however, it is the reality.

The cryptocurrency fever has picked up in China, which has the largest number of “miners” in the world. One reason is said to be because some see it as one way to take capital out of the country.

In India, when the government decided to demonetise the popular 1,000 and 500 rupee notes, there was a 50% increase in the trading of Bitcoin, as people saw it as one way to legalise their black money.

Bitcoin soared past the US$2,500 mark last week, which is a four-fold increase since January this year. There are many other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, that are all seeing a bull run.

The world of cryptocurrency has taken a life of its own. Computer geeks with “blockchain” expertise, the technology that drives the decentralisation settlements of cryptocurrency, are commanding more than US$250,000 per annum.

It is said to be more than what a consultant or a software engineer can earn.

Those who have put their money into cryptocurrency would be laughing all the way to the bank now. But dynamics and fundamentals are complicated. The strength of the cryptocurrency is not based on historical numbers. It does not have an asset backing it.

It is based on future expectations of what the designer of the cryptocurrency offers. It is a complicated investment not meant for the unsophisticated investor.

Only fools will go for investment schemes that are unregulated and offer promises of returns that are unsustainable. They will lose all the time.

The smart investor will rely on traditional stocks and shares with earnings that are visible. Those who are not greedy will surely gain.

The super-smart geeks are banking on the world of cryptocurrency that has a volatile history. Their fate is uncertain.

Source: The Star by M. Shanmugam

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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Global Reset 2016~2017


In a world facing challenges and uncertainties, embrace opportunities for success through innovation.

“I went looking for my dreams outside of myself and discovered, it's not what the world holds for you, it's what you bring to it. –Anne Shirley

THE world is currently at a paradox. Tensions and uncertainty for the future are rising in times of prevailing peace and prosperity. While changes are taking place at an incredibly fast speed, such changes are presenting unprecedented opportunities to those who are willing to innovate.

Recently, most global currencies had weakened against the US dollar (USD). This may give rise to some concern, but it is worth placing in proper perspective that most countries would trade with a few countries instead of just one. Furthermore, we are living in a world with low economic growth, increased mobility and rapid urbanisation.

In such a global landscape, it is important to embrace change and innovation in a courageous way to shape a better future. In L.M. Montgomery's Anne of Green Gables, Anne Shirley said, "I went looking for my dreams outside of myself and discovered, it's not what the world holds for you, it's what you bring to it."

Paradox, change and opportunity

In the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017, World Economic Forum head of the centre for the global agenda and member of the managing board Richard Samans stated that at a time of rising income inequality, mounting social and political tensions and a general feeling of uncertainty about the future, growth remains persistently low.

Commodity prices have fallen, as has trade; external imbalances are increasing and government finances are stressed.

However, it also comes during one of the most prosperous and peaceful times in recorded history, with less disease, poverty and violence than ever before. Against this backdrop of seeming contradictions, the Fourth Industrial Revolution brings both unprecedented opportunity and an accelerated speed of change.

Creating the conditions necessary to reignite growth could not be more urgent. Incentivising innovation is especially important for finding new growth engines, but laying the foundations for long-term, sustainable growth requires working on all factors and institutions identified in the Global Competitiveness Index.

Leveraging the opportunities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will require not only businesses willing and able to innovate, but also sound institutions, both public and private; basic infrastructure, health and education, macroeconomic stability and well-functioning labour, financial and human capital markets.

World Economic Forum editor Klaus Schwab stated in The Fourth Industrial Revolution that we are at the beginning of a global transformation that is characterised by the convergence of digital, physical and biological technologies in ways that are changing both the world around us and our very idea of what it means to be human. The changes are historic in terms of their size, speed and scope.

This transformation – the Fourth Industrial Revolution – is not defined by any particular set of emerging technologies themselves, but by the transition to new systems that are being built on the infrastructure of the digital revolution. As these individual technologies become ubiquitous, they will fundamentally alter the way we produce, consume, communicate, move, generate energy and interact with one another.

Given the new powers in genetic engineering and neurotechnology, they may directly impact who we are, and how we think and behave. The fundamental and global nature of this revolution also pose new threats related to the disruptions it may cause, affecting labour markets and the future of work, income inequality and geopolitical security, as well as social value systems and ethical frameworks.

A dollar story

When set in a global landscape where there is uncertainty for the future, when compared to other countries, Malaysia's economy is performing quite well.

ForexTime vice president of market research Jameel Ahmad said, “When you combine what is happening on a global level, the Malaysian economy is in quite an envious position.”

For 2016, the USD has moved to levels not seen in over 12 years. The dollar index is trading above 100. This was previously seen as a psychological top for USD.

The Malaysian ringgit (MYR) is not alone in the devaluation of its currency. All of the emerging market currencies have been affected in recent weeks.

Similarly, the British £(GBP) has lost 30% this year, falling from US$1.50 to US$1.25 per GBP. The Euro (EUR) has fallen from US$1.15 to US$1.05 in three weeks.

The China Yuan Renmenbi (CNY) is hitting repeated historic lows against the USD. The CNY is only down around 5%.

Jameel believes that the outlook for the USD will be further strengthened. While the dollar was already expected to maintain demand due to the consistent nature of US economic data, the levels of fiscal stimulus that US Presidentelect Donald Trump is aiming to deliver to the US economy will encourage borrowing rates to go up.

This means that it is now more likely than ever that the Federal Reserve will need to accelerate its cycle of monetary policy normalisation (interest rate rises).

Most were expecting higher interest rates in 2017. Trump has also publicly encouraged stronger interest rates. However, when considered that Trump is also promising heavy levels of fiscal stimulus, there is a justified need for higher interest rates, otherwise inflation in the United States will be at risk of getting out of control.

The probability for further gains in the USD due to the availability of higher yields from increased interest rates will mean further pressure to the emerging market currencies.

With populism resulting in victories in both the United States’ presidential election and the EU referendum in the United Kingdom in 2016, attention should be given to the real political issues in Europe and the upcoming political elections in 2017, such as those in Germany and France.

Jameel said, “Until recently, political instability was only associated with developing economies. We are now experiencing a strong emergence across the developed markets. This might lure investors towards keeping their capital within the emerging markets longer. Only time will tell.”

In Malaysia’s case, the economy is still performing at robust levels, despite slowing headline growth. Growth rates in Malaysia are still seen as significantly stronger than those in the developed world.

There are going to be challenges from a stronger USD and other risks such as slowing trade, but the emerging markets are still recording stronger growth rates than the developed world.

Adapting to creative destruction


In a world where changes are taking place rapidly, the ability to adapt to changes plays an important role in encouraging innovation and growth. Global cities are achieving rapid growth by attracting the talented, high value workers that all companies, across industries, want to recruit.

In an era where 490 million people around the world reside in countries with negative interest rates, over 60% of the world’s citizens now own a smartphone and an estimated four billion people live in cities, which is an increase of 23% compared to 10 years ago, these three key trends are shaping our times.

Knight Frank head of commercial John Snow and Newmark Grubb Knight Frank president James D. Kuhn shared that the era of low to negative interest rates has reduced investors’ expectations on what constitutes an acceptable return. The financial roller coaster ride that led to this situation has made safe haven assets highly sought after.

A volatile economy has not stopped an avalanche of technological innovation. Smartphones, tablets, Wi-Fi and 4G have revolutionised the spread of information, increased our ability to work on the move, and led to a flourishing of entrepreneurship.

Fast-growing cities are taking centre stage in the innovation economy and in most of the global cities, supply is not keeping pace with demand for both commercial and residential real estate.

Consequently, tech and creative firms are increasingly relying upon pre-let deals to accommodate growth, while their young workers struggle to find affordable homes.

As the urban economy becomes increasingly people-centric, regardless of a city being driven by finance, aerospace, commodities, defence or manufacturing, the most important asset is a large pool of educated and creative workers.

Consequently, real estate is increasingly a business that seeks to build an environment that attracts and retains such people.

Knight Frank chief economist and editor of global cities James Roberts said, “We are moving into an era where creative people are a highly prized commodity. Cities will thrive or sink on their ability to attract this key demographic.

“A characteristic of the global economy in the last decade has been the phenomenon of stagnation and indeed decline, occurring alongside innovation and success. If you were invested in the right places and technologies, the last decade has been a great time to make money; yet at the same time, some people have lost fortunes.

“The locations that have performed best in this unpredictable environment have generally hosted the creative and technology industries that lead the digital revolution, and disrupt established markets.” The rise of aeroplanes, automobiles and petroleum created economic booms in the cities that led the tech revolution of the 1920s and 30s. Yet elsewhere, recession descended on locations with the industries that lost market share to those new technologies like ship building, train manufacturing and coal mining.

In a world where abundant economic opportunities in one region live alongside stagnation elsewhere, it is not easy to reconcile the fact that countries that were booming just a few years ago on rising commodity prices are now adapting to slower growth.

Just as surprising are Western cities that are now thriving as innovation centres, when they were dismissed as busted flushes in 2009 due to their high exposure to financial centres.

Roberts said, “This is creative destruction at work in the modern context. The important lesson for today’s property investor or occupier of business space, is to ensure you are on-the ground where the ‘creation’ is occurring and have limited exposure to the ‘destruction’. This is not easy, as the pace of technological change is accelerating at a speed where the old finds itself overtaken by the new.

“However, real estate in the global cities arguably offers a hedged bet against this uncertainty due to the nature of the modern urban economy, where those facing destruction, quickly reposition towards the next wave of creation.”

The industries that drive the modern global city are not dependent upon machinery or commodities but people, who deliver economic flexibility.

A locomotive plant cannot easily retool to make electric cars, raising a shortcoming of the single industry factory town. Similarly, an oil field in Venezuela has limited value for any other commercial activity.

However, a modern office building in a global city like Paris can quickly move from accommodating bankers in rows of desks to techies in flexible work space. Therefore, there is adaptability in the people in a service economy city which is matched by the city’s real estate.

In the people-driven global cities, a new industry can redeploy the ‘infantry’ from a fading industry via recruitment. Similarly, the professional and business service companies that served the banks, now serve a new clientele of digital firms.

In contrast, manufacturing or commodity-driven economies face greater barriers when reinventing themselves.

Today, landlords across the world struggle with how to judge the covenants of firms who have not been in existence long enough to have three years of accounts, but are clearly the future.

Consequently, both landlord and tenant need to approach real estate deals with flexibility. Landlords will need to give ground on lease term and financial track record, and occupiers must compensate the landlord for the increased risk via a higher rent.

Another big challenge for the Western global cities will be competition from emerging market cities that succeed in repositioning themselves away from manufacturing, and towards creative services. The process has started, with Shanghai now seeing a rapid expansion of its tech and creative industries.

The big Western centres still lead in services, but the challenge from emerging markets cities did not end with the commodities rout. They are just experiencing creative destruction and will emerge stronger to present a new challenge to the West.

From Mak Kum Shi The Star/ANN  

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Saturday, May 21, 2016

Fintech - disruptive technology




http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/21/fintech-disruptive-technology/

Businesses are embracing it by coming up with their innovations and startups


A BUZZWORD growing in popularity in the financial world today is “fintech”, short for financial technology, which in a nutshell refers to the use of technology to deliver faster and cheaper financial services.

Going by some predications, fintech could take a big chunk of business away from traditional banks as it is being run by smaller more nimble start-ups. But the debate is still out there as to how much that chunk will be. In Malaysia in particular, fintech’s presence is still nascent and small. Fintech transactions totalled a mere US$6.37mil this year compared with a global figure of US$769.3bil, according to Statista, an online statistics provider.

It however predicts that fintech transaction values to grow to US$14.4bil by 2020. A significant number of fintech companies, especially those in the digital payments space, actually work alongside local banks.

Still, fintech is not to be taken lightly. Top bankers themselves are speaking of its imminent threat to their business. Former Barclays CEO Anthony Jenkins referred to it as banking’s “Uber moment” to describe technological advances that could see bank branches close down and people laid off.

Last April, Jamie Dimon the CEO of the US’ largest bank JP Morgan in his letter to shareholders warned that “Silicon Valley is coming.” “There are hundreds of start-ups with a lot of brains and money working on various alternatives to traditional banking,” Dimon wrote.

On the home front, just last month prominent banker Datuk Seri Nazir Razak echoed such views. Speaking at the Star Media Group’s PowerTalk: Business Series held at Menara Star, Nazir opined that fintech companies are disrupting banking.

“Bankers must respond to this Uber moment. People actually dislike banks today, since the global financial crisis. Recent data suggests that in the US, the cost of banking intermediation has not changed for 100 years in real terms. This simply means banks have not gotten more efficient over the years, so its right that banks get attacked by ‘Silicon Valley’, which has identified banking as an industry that is very ‘ripe’ or juicy to disrupt.”

Even the central bank is echoing these views.

In his maiden keynote address at an Islamic finance conference in Kuala Lumpur last week, Malaysia’s newly-appointed Bank Negara governor Datuk Muhammad Ibrahim gave a grim reminder to banks of the threats posed by fintech. In particular, Muhammad quoted from a report by McKinsey that 10% to 40% of banking revenue is possibly at risk by 2025 due to innovations outside banking institutions that are able to offer a significant pricing advantage and that technologically-driven applications had spread to nearly every segment of the financial sector, with the number of fintech start-ups having doubled in the last year. “Fintech is challenging the status quo of the financial industry,” he said.

To be fair, Malaysian banks are quick to point out that while fintech does represent a disruption to business, they are embracing the movement, by coming up with their own fintech innovations or by working with fintech startups.

So what is fintech?

In a nutshell, fintech is an economy of companies using technology to improve efficiencies and effectiveness in the financial services industry. To illustrate the offerings of fintech companies, consider the business model of homegrown start-up MoneyMatch, which is modelled after UK-based TransferWise which began in 2011 and today moves US$10bil a year through its platform.

MoneyMatch has created a platform to match individual buyers and sellers of currencies, with the attraction of both sides enjoying better exchange rates than what banks and even money changers offer. The rate used by the MoneyMatch site is the middle rate of the currency exchange spread. So an individual for example, willing to buy US$100 for his travels will be matched with someone wanting to change his US$100 into ringgit. The parties will be matched on this application and then proceed to make their exchange in an agreed location. MoneyMatch is also entering the area of cross border fund transfers.

“For example, someone in Singapore wishing to transfer money to Malaysia can be matched with someone here wishing to send an equal amount of money across the Causeway. Hence the parties can make the respective transfers to local accounts of their choice after an exchange of information. This means the transfer is done minus any cross-border transfer fees,” explains MoneyMatch co-founder Naysan Munusamy, who had spent many years as a forex trader with a number of banks before venturing out to start MoneyMatch.

Peer lending

One key growth area in fintech is peer to peer or P2P lending, online platforms that match borrowers with lenders, bypassing the traditional financial institutions. The business had even attracted big names such as Goldman Sachs. The most notable name in this space is Lending Club, which had launched its service as far back as 2007 and became the US’ largest technology IPO in 2014, raising around US$1bil.

Lending Club claims that its platform – which enables borrowers to get unsecured loans of US$1,000 to US$35,000 – has now helped originate close to US$16bil in loans.

Locally, last month the Securities Commission (SC) launched a regulatory framework for P2P lending, paving the way for small and medium-sized companies to access this new avenue of debt funding. Under SC’s rules though, individuals are not allowed to raise money on the local P2P platforms. Rather it is meant to only fund projects and businesses and a number of safeguards are in place. For example, those behind the operator of the P2P platform need to pass the “fit and proper” test; the rate of financing cannot be more than 18% (as that would be deemed predatory lending) and that the P2P operator has to disclose information related to the issuer and the risk assessment and credit scoring parameters adopted by the operator. There is no authorized P2P platform in Malaysia yet as parties wishing to run such platforms have to submit their application to the SC soon.

In China, P2P lending has virtually exploded. As a recent report by Citibank highlights, “China is past the tipping point”, with fintech companies having similar number of clients as the major banks. The report notes that China is the largest P2P lender in the world, with transactions topping US$66bil, compared with the US with only US$16.6bil.

Regulating fintech

But there are problems. Some unregulated P2P platforms in China had run scams. Others helped fuel an equity roller-coaster by offering funding for stock investments. This led to the Chinese benchmark index rallying more than 150% in the 12 months to last June before abruptly crashing. The Chinese authorities are now cleaning up the P2P sector.

So what are the risks of fintech regulation in Malaysia? And do companies like MoneyMatch need be regulated and licensed?

In an emailed reply to StarBizWeek, Bank Negara says: “Fintech start-ups that engage in activities under the purview of the central bank must comply with existing laws”. Bank Negara explains that regulated businesses include banking, insurance or takaful, money changing, remittance, operating a payment system or issuing payment instruments.

“A fintech company that engages in any activity that falls within the definition of a regulated business must be properly authorised to do so under the relevant laws.

“As an example, collecting deposits via a fintech platform would require approval from Bank Negara.

“A fintech company that is authorised to conduct a regulated business under the laws that Bank Negara administers will be subject to the oversight of Bank Negara pursuant to those laws.”

What this indicates is that Bank Negara is going to regulate fintechs the same way it does banks. But exactly how, it still isn’t clear.

But the good news is this: Bank Negara says it is engaging with firms in this space (and presumably that includes the likes of MoneyMatch), “to understand and where appropriate facilitate their business and provide guidance on aspects on regulation that would be applicable to them.”

Bank Negara adds that it is in the process of formulating a framework that “encourages innovation without undermining financial stability, the integrity of the financial system or the adequate protection for financial consumers.”

The SC has also been pushing for fintech innovation to develop in Malaysia. Last year, Malaysia became the first country in the region to introduce the regulatory framework for equity crowd funding. (While P2P is about companies raising debt, crowd funding is for entrepreneurs to sell equity to investors.)

The SC has also launched aFINity@SC, a fintech community aimed at industry engagement and more recently launched the P2P financing framework, which is aimed at addressing the funding needs of small businesses.

Chin Wei Min, the SC’s new head of innovation and digital strategy, says: “We think fintech can provide solutions to some of the unserved and underserved needs in the capital market.”

Chin adds: “We are also mindful of the risk, fraud and all the pitfalls. We continue to enhance our engagement model. We want to remain very close to the industry.”

Fintech’s hiccups

Some recent developments in the fintech space, however, point to weaknesses in fintech companies. LendingClub, the poster boy company for P2P lending has seen its shares tumble, wiping out about a third of its market value.

This came as it faces scrutiny after its founder and CEO resigned following an investigation into improper loan sales.

The US Treasury has released a report criticising the P2P lending business, recommending it to be more tightly regulated. Some commentators are liking P2P lending to the early days of the subprime mortgage bubble of 2006-07.

It is more likely though that the experiences of fintech in mature markets like China and the US will serve as good guides as to how this business will grow in this part of the world, with the requisite regulations put in place.

And the jury is still out as to whether traditional banks here will lose significant parts of their businesses to fintech start-ups.

Or as one industry observer puts it, fintech is more likely to usurp the business of the shadow banking market here, as some unserved borrowers now have the option to move away from loan sharks or “Ah Longs” and into the crowd funding or P2P platforms. But after that, banks could be next.

By Risen Jayaseelan, Wong Wei-Shen, a Zunaira Saieed The Star


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Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Property prices will hold as ringgit falls to new low against USD and S$


PETALING JAYA: The depreciation of the ringgit will not lead to real estate prices crashing.

The Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents (MIEA) president Eric Kho said property remained a sound investment despite the current economic climate.

“Holding property is always better than holding cash,” he said.

Kho acknowledged that demand for primary or new developments had slowed but not as a result of weakening currency.

He said the slowdown was due to Bank Negara guidelines for banks to be more prudent when providing loans as well as increased construction cost due to the Goods and Service Tax (GST).

Kho said construction cost had increased by up to 15% and some developers were holding back on launching new properties.

He said developers who had launched projects were offering huge discounts to attract buyers.

Kho said there was also a slowdown in the secondary market and those looking to buy could expect to pay between 5 and 10% less, depending on location.

Kho, however, expected this situation to be temporary and said property would eventually appreciate.
- The Star/Asia News Network

Ringgit falls to a new low

PETALING JAYA: China’s central bank adjusted the yuan downwards for the second consecutive day, sending markets and currencies reeling.

The ringgit continued its fall against the US dollar, hitting a new low of RM4.0275, largely due to the devaluation of the yuan.

All currencies in the region also continued with their decline against the US dollar.

On a year-to-date basis, the ringgit is the worst performer among its Asian peers, and is down 13.33%. This is followed by the Indonesian rupiah, South Korean won and Thai baht at 9.88%, 8.35% and 6.99%, respectively.

Comparatively, the yuan is now down approximately 4.61%.

The impact on the ringgit is worse compared to other countries because Malaysia is viewed as a net exporter of energy and prices are depressed now – hovering below the US$50 per barrel mark.

Stock markets across the region fell with the Jakarta Composite Index leading the pack by falling 3.1% followed by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index which dropped 2.38%.

There was a “bloodbath” on Bursa Malaysia where about 90% of the 1,000-odd stocks listed closed lower.

The benchmark KLCI fell for the fifth consecutive day, shedding 26.8 points yesterday to close at 1609 points. Since last Thursday, the index has been down by 116 points.

On Tuesday, the People Bank of China (PBOC) moved the guiding rate for the yuan 2% downwards and yesterday it set it at 1.6% lower. The guiding rate is the band within which the yuan is allowed to trade.

The downward movement is viewed as a devaluation of the yuan and the biggest currency movement for the world’s second largest economy since 1994. Although China abandoned its currency peg in 2005, the central bank manages the yuan in a tight range.

The devaluation of the yuan has sparked concerns that China’s economic slowdown was more severe than anticipated and the central bank had to devalue the currency to export its way out of the situation.

Independent economist Lee Heng Guie said that the devaluation that has sparked a global currency war may end up with no winners.

The impact on depreciating ringgit is likely to be felt most by companies which import their raw materials, consumers and parents with children studying overseas.

BY RAHIMY RAHIM, RAZAK AHMAD, AND L. SUGANYA The Star/Asia News Network

Ringgit hits new record low of 2.9109 to Singdollar

Malaysia's ringgit hit a new record low against the Singapore dollar on Friday (Aug 14).PHOTO: AFP

SINGAPORE - Malaysia's ringgit hit a new record low against the Singapore dollar on Friday (Aug 14), after the Malaysian unit slumped to a fresh 17-year low versus the US dollar.

With the fall in oil prices increasing concerns over the country's exports, the ringgit lost as much as 2.6 per cent to 4.1180 per dollar, its weakest since Sept. 1 1998.

It recovered some ground to trade at 4.0660 to the US dollar at 2:04pm, bringing its loss this week to about 4.5 per cent.

Malaysia pegged the ringgit at 3.8000 in September 1998 and maintained it until 2005.

Against the Singapore dollar, the ringgit tumbled 1.55 per cent to 2.9109 as at 11:45am from its close of 2.8665 on Thursday. The ringgit pared its losses to trade at 2.8944 as at 2:04pm.

Better-than-expected economic data on Thursday failed to dispel the gloom with the benchmark stock index falling 1.5 per cent on Friday morning, heading for its lowest close since 2012. Fve-year government bond yield rose to 3.982 per cent, its highest since November 2008.

Oil prices fell with crude futures hitting six-and-a-half lows, exacerbating worries about Malaysia's exports. The country supplies liquefied natural gas and palm oil.

Malaysia has also had to draw heavily on its foreign exchange reserves to defend its currency amid a political scandal, a yuan devaluation and slumping oil prices. Bank Negara governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said on Thursday the central bank will need to rebuild the reserves that have fallen below US$100 billion for the first time since 2010.

"Foreigners are still selling," said Ang Kok Heng, chief investment officer at Phillip Capital Management Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, told Bloomberg News. "Unless the ringgit stops weakening, I don't know how long the selling will continue." - New Straits Time

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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Chinese yuan extends fall, long-term depreciation unlikely, weakening is not devaluation


BEIJING, Aug. 12 (Xinhua) -- Chinese currency continued to fall on Wednesday after the central bank reformed the exchange rate formation system to better reflect the market.

The central parity rate of renminbi, or yuan, weakened by 1,008 basis points, or 1.6 percent, to 6.3306 against the U.S. dollar, narrowing from Tuesday's 2 percent, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, changed the exchange rate formation system so that it takes into consideration the closing rate of the inter-bank foreign exchange market on the previous day, supply and demand in the market and price movement of major currencies.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) described the central bank's move as "a welcome step" that allows market forces to have a greater role in determining the exchange rate.

"Greater exchange rate flexibility is important for China as it strives to give market-forces a decisive role in the economy and is rapidly integrating into global financial markets," an IMF spokesperson said in an email on Wednesday.

The IMF said it believes the country can achieve an effective floating exchange rate system within two or three years.

However, the move still surprised the market and prompted the lowest valuation of the yuan since October 2012.

Ma Jun, chief economist at the PBOC's research bureau, attributed the lower rate to a long-standing gap between the central parity rate and the previous day's closing rate on the inter-bank market.

In a latest statement released on Wednesday, the PBOC said the rate changes are normal, as it shows a more market-based system and the decisive role that the supply-demand relationship plays in determining the exchange rate.

"This may lead to potentially significant fluctuations in the short run but after a short period of adaptation the intra-day exchange rate movements and resulting central parity fluctuations will converge to a reasonably stable zone," the PBOC said.

Ma also said the shift is a one-off technical correction and should not be interpreted as an indicator of future depreciation.

A relatively robust economy, current account surplus and the internationalization of the yuan will help the currency remain stable, the PBOC said.

Official data showed the Chinese economy maintained 7 percent growth in the first half of 2015 against challenges at home and abroad, creating sound conditions for the yuan to hold steady.

Surplus in goods trade reached 305.2 billion U.S. dollars in the first 7 months, a fundamental prop for the exchange rate.

An internationalized yuan and open financial sector have boosted the demand for the currency in recent years, which serves as momentum for the rate's stabilization, the PBOC said.

In addition, the PBOC also cited China's abundant foreign exchange reserves, stable fiscal condition and healthy financial system. The central parity rate is based on a weighted average of prices offered by market makers before the opening of the interbank market each trading day. The currency is allowed to trade on the spot market within 2 percent of the rate.

The PBOC said it will strive to further improve market-based exchange rate formation, maintain normal fluctuations and keep the rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level.
- Xinhuanet


Yuan weakening is not devaluation: central bank economist


Photo taken on March 16, 2014, shows yuan (central) and other currencies in the picture. [Photo/IC]

BEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- Allowing the Chinese yuan to weaken sharply against the U.S. dollar does not signify the beginning of a downward trend, a central bank economist said on Tuesday .

The yuan central parity rate announced by the China Foreign Exchange Trading System (CFETS) stood at 6.2298 against the greenback on Tuesday compared to 6.1162 on Monday, down nearly 2 percent, the lowest level since April, 2013.

The shift is a one-off technical correction and should not be interpreted as an indicator of future depreciation, said Ma Jun, chief economist at the research bureau of the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

The central parity rate is based on a weighted average of prices offered by market makers before the opening of the interbank market each trading day. The currency is allowed to trade on the spot market within 2 percent of the rate.

The PBOC said Tuesday's lower rate resolved accumulated differences between the central parity rate and the market rate, and was part of improvements to the central parity rate formation system to make it more market-based.

Ma said a long-standing gap between the central parity rate and the previous day's closing rate on the inter-bank market led to the lower rate on Tuesday.

He said China's economic fundamentals support a "basically stable" yuan exchange rate. A central parity rate closer to the market rate will provide a more stable environment for macro-economic development.

The economy has shown signs steadying and recovery, with infrastructure investment accelerating and property sales improving. Compared with some economies under strong pressure to depreciate their currencies, China is better-off, with a current account surplus, huge foreign exchange reserves, low inflation and sound fiscal conditions, he explained.

From Tuesday, daily central parity quotes reported to CFETS before the market opens will be based on the previous day's closing rate on the inter-bank market, supply and demand and price movements of other major currencies, according to the PBOC.

In July 2005, the central bank unpegged the yuan against the U.S. dollar, allowing it to fluctuate against a basket of currencies.

Making formation of the central parity rate more market-based touches on the core of reform, compared with previous steps that mainly concerned how much the yuan can fluctuate, said Guan Tao, former head of the international payments department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

The yuan was at first allowed to vary by 0.3 percent from the central parity rate each trading day and the trading band gradually expanded to 2 percent in March last year. The market expects it to expand to 3 percent in the near future.

The latest reform actually increases China's flexibility and independence in foreign exchange control, as a rigid exchange rate system is open to speculative attacks, Guan told China Business News.

Two-way fluctuations will become normal for the yuan in future, he said.

- Xinhuanet

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Monday, August 10, 2015

The riddled Ringgit Malasia hits 17-year low against US dollar

Falling rate: A moneychanger worker showing the ringgit and US dollar notes in Kuala Lumpur recently. The ringgit is still falling versus the greenback.

Policy Matters - The riddled ringgit

CURRENCY traders are speculators. They make their money by taking bets; betting that this currency will rise, or that will fall.

Traders deal with the sentiments of the moment. They place their bets on the basis of expectations. They are quick to sniff weaknesses and take advantage of them.

The Malaysian ringgit has been vulnerable in the hands of traders. Not that traders are evil people. This is just how capitalism works.

Buying and selling from minute to minute, based on breaking news, even rumours, foreign exchange strategists do not ponder over fundamentals and the long-term equilibrium value of a currency when short-term pressures are overwhelming.

With allegations of financial impropriety running wild, there is nothing juicier that traders can chew on.

Bank Negara Malaysia, the one organisation that would know about the movement of huge sums of money, has been aloof. As waves of rumours and allegations rise and crash, silence does not do anything to quell speculation.

Then, there have been recent political developments: the deputy prime minister, other ministers and the attorney-general were dropped.

The prime minister has had to roll up his pants and walk into the rising tide. Any attempt to induce calm can, at times, induce more speculation.

Again, a field day for speculators.

The outlook is not very promising for much of the year.

A declining ringgit would make exports cheaper while raising the cost of imports. In the short run, theory indicates that the trade balance would decline.

With the passage of time, again as theory suggests, the volume of exports might increase. At this point the value of the ringgit would rise.

Until such time as the ringgit floats back to its equilibrium level, the declining ringgit will not do a lot of good.

A declining ringgit would make the consumption of imported goods from machinery and equipment to chocolates more expensive. This would lead to a decrease in household consumption of foreign goods and services, and it would also reduce investment in capital. The latter would not be beneficial because it would affect future production.

Should there be an interest rate hike in the United States in September BNM might find it necessary to respond with a hike in Malaysia. This might stem some of the capital outflow, but it would also act as a dampener on domestic investment.

The declining ringgit would drive the central bank to prop up the ringgit, as it perhaps already has. This has led to the decrease in international reserves. Malaysia has had more than adequate reserves, so a run-down on reserves will not be damaging.

It would be problematic to see the ringgit slip after the sell-off of reserves. That would mean wasting resources only to see a short-lived support of the ringgit.

Another worrying factor is the impact of the fall in the ringgit on Malaysia's foreign debt. A weaker ringgit would mean a higher cost in debt servicing.

International rating agencies are known to look unkindly at declining international reserves and exchange rate weaknesses.

Hence, a deeper concern might be a downgrade in Malaysia's credit rating. It would be a pity if Malaysia were to be slapped with a downgrade because the government has gone to great lengths to convince international agencies of our credit worthiness.

Although the outlook is not particularly bright, all is not out of our hands.

First, confidence must be restored in our economy. In particular, companies must be given the support they need to wade through the difficulties they face.

Second, the domestic political risk factors have to be better managed.

Third, although there is not much room for expansionary fiscal policies, it may need to be used to counterbalance an economy that is faced with a slump in confidence and enthusiasm. Stakeholders must be reminded that the country's development plans are on track.

Fourth, it is necessary to convince stakeholders that the central bank can act appropriately should the ringgit continue to face strong pressures.

Trying to save the day by persuading agents not to sell the ringgit has a flat timbre to it, at least under current conditions.

Fifth, initiatives must be taken to push ahead with good institutions and governance structures. This is in keeping with the government's overall programme, and it is now most opportune to stress the commitment to this objective.

The Malaysian economy has weathered many a crisis. The challenges that present themselves now are not trivial, but they are surely surmountable.

By Shankaran Nambiar

Dr Shankaran Nambiar is author of The Malaysian Economy: Rethinking Policies and Purposes. The views expressed in this article are his own. Comments: letters@thesundaily.com

Ringgit to ease further against US dollar next week


KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to depreciate further against the US dollar next week, as falling commodity prices coupled with domestic political development will hurt investor confidence further, a dealer said.

The dealer said consistent talks over a possible US interest rates hike next month has prolonged the greenback's strength, with most emerging Asian currencies succumbing to selling pressure including the ringgit.

Last Thursday, the ringgit breached 3.9000 against the dollar for the first time since the Asian financial crisis 17 years ago, amid political tensions. The local note was pegged at 3.80 per dollar from 1998 to 2005 during the Asian financial crisis by the then Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Capital Advisors Currency Trader, Justin Herling, told Bernama that other factors such as declining oil prices and China's struggling economy had largely contributed to the depreciation of the ringgit.

He predicted the ringgit to further depreciate to 4.05 over the next 30 days.

"However we see this as a short-term correction but in the long term fundamentals still remain strong," he added.

For the week just ended, the ringgit traded lower against the US dollar at 3.9220/9250 from 3.8230/8260 recorded last Friday.

The local currency also fell against the Singapore dollar to 2.8291/8317 from 2.7775/7799 last Friday and weakened against the yen to 3.1429/1458 from 3.0771/0800 previously.

It declined against the pound sterling to 6.0881/0943 from 5.9509/9563 last week and was easier against the euro at 4.2836/2885 from 4.1816/1860 previously. – Bernama

Getting into the ringgit engine room

The depreciating ringgit has caught the imagination of most people on the streets. Beginning this week, we are featuring a special column on the mechanics of the currency and the forces that dictates its movements.Armed with two decades of experience as an interest rate and foreign exchange strategist in various financial institutions, Suresh Ramanathan will be looking into the intricacies of currency markets. With a Doctorate in Economics from Universiti Malaya, Suresh specialises in Modelling of Interest Rate Swaps, Foreign Exchange Forwards and Monetary Policy Signalling.Voted as Asia’s best foreign exchange strategist last year by AsiaMoney, he remains intrigued and fascinated by the workings of financial markets.

JUST how much is a currency worth? Exactly what the last buyer was willing to pay for it. That is the short answer. The longer answer is complicated.

In Malaysia’s foreign exchange (forex) markets, figuring out what a currency is worth is suddenly urgent. Trading is erratic, bid and offer spreads are wide and volume is thin as the market adapts to currency volatility. Determining the fair value of a currency is not an easy task either, disagreements between economists on what the fair value is or how it is measured becomes a banter at coffee bars and rigorous in academia. While the simple approach in analysing recent currency weakness is taking a top-down approach – meaning looking into macro-economic issues, followed by external and internal factors – affecting the economy.

But in the current environment, it may not suffice. Expectations of currency depreciating is built over a period of time until it reaches a breaking point.

The breaking point for ringgit is when the rest of the macro economic variables such as economic growth, inflation and trade balances are impacted.

The big question being where exactly is the breaking point for the ringgit? For the ringgit, a factor that stands out, is the arbitrage-speculative mechanism in the forex forward market.

A forex forward contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell currency at a specified future time at a price agreed upon today. It is available in all banks and used primarily for exporters and importers as a hedging instrument. The forex forward market has two features – one being a deliverable forward contract traded in the domestic market and settled in ringgit.

The other feature being a non-deliverable forward (NDF) contract that is settled in US dollar and traded offshore. Generally the NDFs are traded in financial centres such as Singapore, London and New York.

The mechanism of how a NDF trade and settlement works is based on the tenure of the contract followed by the fixing rate. The tenure can range from one month to a year or more and the price is fixed at the time the trade is entered into between two parties.

The trade, fixing and settlement dates are crucial since the period between the inception of the trade and the fixing can decide the profit and loss of a non-deliverable trade.

The fixing of the ringgit against the US dollar is currently done onshore through a spot fixing mechanism monitored by Bank Negara. The mechanism of fixing the rate onshore or in the domestic market removes certain elements of arbitrage and speculation.

But it does not prevent traders from taking a position in the offshore market by going into an agreement to buy or sell NDFs. It provides an arbitrage opportunity. In simple terms, the difference between the spot rate that is fixed in the domestic market and the offshore rate indicated by the MYR NDF provides an arbitrage opportunity for traders.

The second channel of arbitrage – speculation involves yield when one buys or sell a currency contract in the forward market. Between the period of inception of the trade and the fixing date, the MYR NDF yield can move either way. It is here where banks profit the trade, via using the implied NDF yield arbitrage versus the onshore forward yield.

This spread has been the lynchpin of trading mechanism for currency markets, particularly for emerging market currencies that are not convertible in the international market and not allowed to trade offshore. This is a legacy that was left behind from the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98 when Malaysia imposed capital controls and ringgit no longer became an international tender.

In the current trading environment of ringgit, spreads on the implied yield between onshore and offshore forward markets have persistently stayed above 1%, since the third quarter of 2014. An implied yield spread of more than 1% between onshore and offshore forward market indicates weakness of the ringgit against the US dollar.

This provides an avenue for markets to exploit the difference in yield, particularly for financial institutions that have access to both the onshore and offshore foreign exchange forward market. As the arbitrage window gradually closes and the spread between offshore and onshore implied yield from the foreign exchange forward narrows, the impetus for the ringgit to weaken further slows in pace, and it is here the risk of the currency swinging to the firm side picks up momentum.

Bottom-line, it’s not the macro view ala top-down that affects the ringgit. It’s the trading arbitrage in the currency that truly plays a significant role for the ringgit’s current predicament.

By SURESH RAMANATHAN


The difference between now and 1998

THE ringgit is falling and so is the stock market. Contagion worries are building.

That scenario is a reality for Malaysian capital markets and the anxiety over a slowdown in China’s economy has got many worried about its effect on economic momentum in Malaysia.

Parallels from such a situation today can be drawn against what happened during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/98 but the setting is different than what happened almost 20 years ago.

Going back to 1997/98, it was a time when growth in Malaysia and South-East Asia was booming. Overheating worries turned into whether such growth was sustainable.

Starting with the attack on the Thai baht, the currencies of many South-East Asian countries were soon under attack.

The ringgit too felt the brunt of such attacks and at the worst, fell to RM4.80 to the dollar before recovering and ultimately pegged at RM3.80 to the dollar in September 1998.

“In 1997/98, it was contagion that caused problems. The currency crisis turned into a financial crisis,” says independent economist Lee Heng Guie.

The reasons for the fall in the ringgit this time is different.

The value of the ringgit was for some time after the peg was removed linked with the price of crude oil. As the price of crude oil rose, so the ringgit.

But as the price of crude oil collapsed like it has now, the ringgit felt the brunt. Political uncertainties in Malaysia is not helping the value of the ringgit.

The price of West Texas Intermediate is now at US$44.81 a barrel

The danger is what will happen to the real economy as the ringgit weakens?

The external trade sector will do well as seen in June’s export numbers. The steep decline of the ringgit in June lifted external trade by 5.0% year-on-year to RM64.3bil. “In part, the weak ringgit currency spurred exports growth during the month. Ringgit fell to an average of RM3.74 per US dollar in June versus RM3.60 in May. Exports growth were driven by most export products except the exports of petroleum including crude petroleum, LNG and petroleum products. Primarily, the exports of E&E surged by 13.5% following two months of contractions,” says AmResearch in a note.

Although there are similarities in the movement of the ringgit between 1997/98 and today, the stark contrast was economic strength.

In 1997 Malaysia had a current account deficit and a fiscal surplus. That situation reversed a year later and has been so ever since. The ringgit peg at RM3.80 afforded stability to exporters and that swelled the trade account in 1998. A fiscal deficit was realised after the Government embarked on priming, with the aid of lower government debt than today, to kickstart the economy which had been ravaged by a steep decline in economic activity.

One of the reasons why businesses found it hard going in 1998 was corporate leverage. A number of corporations were saddled with big debts and institutions such as Danaharta Nasional Bhd was formed to restructure corporate debt in Malaysia.

Conditions are reversed for most of corporate Malaysia today. Leverage has been kept in check and cash balances among corporates are in a far healthier state than it was in 1997/98.

The difference was also foreign reserves. From a high of US$34.6bil in May 1994, foreign reserves dropped to a low of US$17.5bil in 1997. Foreign reserves in Malaysia was US$96.7bil as at July 31.

Although the quantum of foreign reserves compared with the size of the economy is a comparative consideration, economists point out that the amount of reserves today is sufficient for nearly 7.6 months of imports. Back then, it was enough for just 3.2 months of imports.

“We have come a long way from the past. The banking system is well capitalised compared with back then,” says AmResearch economist Patricia Oh Swee Ling.

The biggest difference between 1997/98 and today are households.

During the Asian financial crisis almost two decades ago, household debt as a percentage of GDP was a meagre 16%.

At the end of last year, it was 87.9% and remains at an elevated level. The man in the street was generally immune to the crisis although there was an uptick in unemployment and higher loan repayments for loans as interest rates spiked.

While per capita income today is in excess of RM35,000 compared with RM12,314 in 1998, cost pressures have emerged. The goods and services tax (GST) has crimped spending power among consumers and retail sales, according to the Malaysia Retailers Association, contracted by 3% in the second quarter compared with a rise of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2015.

Purchasers by consumers has been a big factor in the growth of the economy and if private consumption, which accounts for 50% of GDP according to an economist, falls, then that will put pressure on economic growth in the second quarter.

Economic weakness ahead

Bank Negara will release second quarter GDP numbers next week and the general consensus is it will be lower than the first quarter. The consensus is for a growth of 4.5% for the second quarter.

Citigroup, in a note, projects second quarter GDP to come in at 4% compared with 5.6% in the first quarter.

“Services were dragged down by a 11.2% year-on-year plunge in motor vehicle sales post GST, while transport and utilities were also soft. Loan growth was stable, though fund raising in capital markets lifted financial services growth,” it says.

Citigroup says growth in mining slowed to below 8% from a year ago in the second quarter on weaker production volumes in gas and oil.

“Manufacturing also slowed below 5% year-on-year on softer April-May electrical and electronic production, although rebounding in June to 7.1% year-on-year. Growth was likely cushioned by a turnaround in palm oil production and strong construction.

“From an expenditure perspective, the slowdown in second quarter GDP growth was likely led by domestic demand, especially consumption. We remain cautious on third quarter prospects given continued slump in the Composite Leading Indicator, second half growth should be cushioned by base effects, a gradual recovery from the GST induced slump, and a lift to manufactured exports from a US recovery,” it says.

Affin Hwang Capital believes that despite households adjusting to the GST following its implementation in early April, it believes private consumption will remain supportive of economic growth in the second half, supported by favourable labour market conditions on the back of steady increase in income and low unemployment rate in the country.

“Malaysia’s real GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.6% y-o-y in the first quarter to an estimated 4.5% in the second quarter, before recovering to an average of 5% y-o-y in the second half. We highlighted that our full year 2015 GDP forecast remained unchanged at 5% in 2015, at the mid-point of the official forecast of between 4.5% and 5.5% (6% in 2014).”

Moody’s Investors Service was more optimistic. It expects Malaysia’s economy to grow by 5.1% in the second quarter.

“Exports are the main drag, driven by soft global demand and low oil prices. This filters through to the domestic economy as unemployment rises and consumers reduce spending. Capital expenditure should remain buoyant as government infrastructure projects come on line.

Malaysia’s economy should pick up later this year as the global economy strengthens,” it says.

By JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU The Star/Asia News Network

Slide continues despite efforts to arrest fall

THE ringgit slide continues despite aggressive attempts by the central bank to shore up the beleaguered currency.

Bank Negara said yesterday the country’s international reserves fell to US$96.7bil as at end of July, down US$8.8bil from a month ago. It came from a high of US$140bil in 2013.

Analysts said the recent sharp fall in reserves indicated that Bank Negara had step up its intervention in the currency market.

The ringgit had been under tremendous pressure in recent months as the outflow of funds continued unabated.

Bank Negara said foreign investors cut their holdings of Malaysian bonds by 2.4% to RM206.8bil in July. This is the lowest level of foreign holding in the Malaysian bond market since August 2012.

The outflow from the bond market coincided with the sell-off seen in the stock market.

MIDF Research earlier this week said global investors had pulled out an estimated RM11.9bil from Bursa Malaysia as of end of July.

This added to the RM6.9bil that left the stock market last year.

The rush to exit by foreign investors was a major force behind the ringgit’s sharp decline year-to-date. The local currency exchange rate against the US dollar hit 3.93 yesterday, which is a new 17-year low.

That put the ringgit down 11% year-to-date and made it Asia’s worst performing currency so far this year. To some, the currency’s recent plunge evokes an eerie reminder of past financial crisis.

The ringgit was fixed at 3.80 against the US dollar in September 1998, at the height of the Asian financial crisis. The currency peg was removed in July 2005.

Ten years down the road, the ringgit is again under pressure. And so are other currencies across the region as global investors adjust to the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the US.

In Indonesia, the rupiah was down 8.5% against the US dollar, while its stock market declined 8.7%.

Capital Economics, an independent macro-economic research firm said the biggest threat to Malaysia is slump of its currency and lower commodity prices that is hurting exports.

“With the exception of Malaysia, where US dollar debt is high, currency weaknesss is not a major threat to the region,” it said.

State owned Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) sold US$5bil of US dollar denominated bonds in March, while Tenaga Nasional Bhd recently said about 6% of its RM24bil debts are in US currency.

Others like 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) also have a significant portion of its RM42bil debts in foreign denominated currency.

Malaysia has also been hit hard by the fall in global commodity prices. The country is a net exporter of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and is ranked among the largest exporters of rubber and palm oil

For the first six months, exports declined 3.1% from a year ago, largely due to lower prices of commodities.

Next week will be a busy one for the market as the Government is scheduled to release the country’s factory output figures on Monday followed by gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter on Thursday.

The country’s economic performance and its outlook by the central bank should provide some bearing for the ringgit, which some analysts, including those at CIMB Research expect to touch RM4 against the US dollar by the end of the year.

By IZWAN IDRIS The Star/Asia News Network

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PETALING JAYA: The ringgit has fallen to its lowest against the US dollar since August 2009 amid concerns over the impact of low oil prices on Malaysia's economy and the timing of US interest rate hike. At 5pm yesterday, the ...